Bertil Haggman

A Federal China? –

A Discussion Paper

Special Report No. 65 of the Center for Research on Geopolitics (CRG), SWEDEN. Director: Mr. Bertil Haggman, LL.M., author. E-mail: bertilhaggman@hotmail.com

Introduction

The question of a federally organized China is one that is of some interest in the future.

The following scenario is of course only a few initial thoughts. After all China is one of the world’s biggest stories. It is easy to forget that there are two Chinese states at present and that the around 23 million citizens of the Republic of China on Taiwan have as much rights as the 1,2 billion (in 2020 around 1,4 billion) Chinese and other peoples in mainland China.

• Constitution

A federal constitution of a future China should be based on division of power. It could have some of the following general provisions:

Chapter I. General Provisions

Article 1.

The Republic of China shall be a democratic and federal republic of the people, to be governed by the people and for the people.

Article 2.

The Sovereignty of the Federal Republic of China shall reside in the whole body of citizens.

Article 3. Persons possessing the nationality of the Federal Republic of China shall reside in the whole body of citizens.

Article 4.

The territory of the Republic of China according to its national boundaries shall not be altered except by resolution of the National Congress.

Article 5.

There shall be equality among the various racial groups in the Federal Republic of China.

Article 6.

The national flag of the Federal Republic of China shall be of red ground with blue sky and seven white stars for each state.

These could be the first possible articles of a constitution for a federal China.

One possible structure is 7 states: The State of Taiwan, The State of South China, The State of Central China, The State of North China, The State of Saipei, The State of Northeast China and the State of West China with their own governments and parliaments in the federal system.

• Flag

In the present flag of the Republic of China on Taiwan there is a White Sun in the emblem representing the 12 two-hour periods of the day.  Together they represent the spirit of progress.

This White Sun could be replaced by 7 white stars representing the 7 states of the federation.

• Some Conclusions

The possible scenario presented above could be a matrix of a new China. A Federal China would open up, but not fragment, and central power would not reside in the federal capital itself only.  The new constitution could only work in a free environment allowing for free elections for a constitutional congress to work out a new constitution.

Naturally such a congress must be preceded by a diplomatic recognition of the Republic of China by all states as an independent and sovereign nation.

The earlier a debate on the future of China and its constitution is started, the better. In a modern world a communist ruled great power is an anomaly. This short report is to be regarded as one contribution of many to the debate on the future of China.

The problem with China historically was well described by Karl Wittfogel in his bok “Oriental Despotism” (1957). China was a farming society based on irrigation. There was a strong tendency for an organizational structure of waterworks. The consequence was ‘a state stronger than society’. The despotic power was and is since 1949 total. For the individual it meant ‘total terror – total submission – total loneliness”. What is now needed is “total change”, not reform of the Chinese Communist Party, but introduction of new thinking, the type of thinking that has brought for example Taiwan the prosperity it now has.

The military threat of the regime in Beijing to the United States, the West and Taiwan is continuing. As long as the threat remains there is little or no hope for a future China organized in a free federal system.

Comments in 2020

The communist Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been open with his plan for China of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It is to become the world’s top power by 2049, 100 years after the takeover in 1949. China wants to create a new world system with itself at the center.

The regime could very well be the world hegemon in the 2040s extending military, economic, financial and ideological influence and power. With economic supremacy the rest will follow. It would be a new age of rule by an Asian empire. The strategy of the United States and the rest of the West before 2016 has been utterly insufficient.

It is important to note that stopping the China ruled by CCP is not a clash of civilizations. There is high regard in the West for the ancient Chinese civilization and the Chinese people.

It is time in the 2020s for the Free World to build up economic, military, technological, educational and innovation potential.  An effective economic and military containment strategy is needed.

The communist empire is mainly a landpower in the classical geopolitical sense (Halford Mackinder) but it has developed a navy that can patrol many world trade routes. Thus it is also becoming a seapower of the type described by Albert Thayer Mahan. CCP understands that sea power normally translates to greater power and wealth leading to greater world influence.

There is 200 years of deep nationalism and feeling of superiority in the CCP. The party has played the victimhood card to the extreme. Now the party believes that destiny has placed the country on the road hegemony.